A Tractable Stochastic Model Of Correlated Link Failures Caused By Disasters

Authors:
Janos Tapolcai Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Hungary
Balazs Vass Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Hungary
Zalan Heszberger Budapest University of Technology and Ec., Hungary
Jozsef Biro Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Hungary
David Hay The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel
Fernando A Kuipers Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands
Lajos Ronyai Budapest University of Technology and Economics (BME), Hungary

Abstract:

In order to evaluate the expected availability of a service, a network administrator should consider all possible failure scenarios under the specific service availability model stipulated in the corresponding service-level agreement. Given the increase in natural disasters and malicious attacks with geographically extensive impact, considering only independent single link failures is often insufficient. In this paper, we build a stochastic model of geographically correlated link failures caused by disasters, in order to estimate the hazards a network may be prone to, and to understand the complex correlation between possible link failures. With such a model, one can quickly extract information, such as the probability of an arbitrary set of links to fail simultaneously, the probability of two nodes to be disconnected, the probability of a path to survive a failure, etc. Furthermore, we introduce a pre-computation process, which enables us to succinctly represent the joint probability distribution of link failures. In particular, we generate, in polynomial time, a quasilinear-sized data structure, with which the joint failure probability of any set of links can be computed efficiently.

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