Fisher's exact test

Fisher is said to have devised the test following a comment from Muriel Bristol, who claimed to be able to detect whether the tea or the milk was added first to her cup. He tested her claim in the 'lady tasting tea' experiment. The test is useful for categorical data that result from classifying objects in two different ways; it is used to examine the significance of the association (contingency) between the two kinds of classification. So in Fisher's original example, one criterion of classification could be whether milk or tea was put in the cup first; the other could be whether Bristol thinks that the milk or tea was put in first. We want to know whether these two classifications are associated—that is, whether Bristol really can tell whether milk or tea was poured in first. Most uses of the Fisher test involve, like this example, a 2 × 2 contingency table. The p-value from the test is computed as if the margins of the table are fixed, i.e. as if, in the tea-tasting example, Bristol knows the number of cups with each treatment (milk or tea first) and will therefore provide guesses with the correct number in each category. As pointed out by Fisher, this leads under a null hypothesis of independence to a hypergeometric distribution of the numbers in the cells of the table. With large samples, a chi-squared test (or better yet, a G-test) can be used in this situation. However, the significance value it provides is only an approximation, because the sampling distribution of the test statistic that is calculated is only approximately equal to the theoretical chi-squared distribution. The approximation is inadequate when sample sizes are small, or the data are very unequally distributed among the cells of the table, resulting in the cell counts predicted on the null hypothesis (the “expected values”) being low. The usual rule of thumb for deciding whether the chi-squared approximation is good enough is that the chi-squared test is not suitable when the expected values in any of the cells of a contingency table are below 5, or below 10 when there is only one degree of freedom (this rule is now known to be overly conservative). In fact, for small, sparse, or unbalanced data, the exact and asymptotic p-values can be quite different and may lead to opposite conclusions concerning the hypothesis of interest. In contrast the Fisher exact test is, as its name states, exact as long as the experimental procedure keeps the row and column totals fixed, and it can therefore be used regardless of the sample characteristics. It becomes difficult to calculate with large samples or well-balanced tables, but fortunately these are exactly the conditions where the chi-squared test is appropriate. For hand calculations, the test is only feasible in the case of a 2 × 2 contingency table. However the principle of the test can be extended to the general case of an m × n table, and some statistical packages provide a calculation (sometimes using a Monte Carlo method to obtain an approximation) for the more general case.