Potentially hazardous object

A potentially hazardous object (PHO) is a near-Earth object – either an asteroid or a comet – with an orbit that can make exceptionally close approaches to the Earth and large enough to cause significant regional damage in the event of impact. They are defined as having a minimum orbital intersection distance with Earth of less than 0.05 astronomical units (19.5 lunar distances) and an absolute magnitude of 22 or brighter. Radar image of the 360-meter PHA (308635) 2005 YU55Solar System → Local Interstellar Cloud → Local Bubble → Gould Belt → Orion Arm → Milky Way → Milky Way subgroup → Local Group → Local Sheet → Virgo Supercluster → Laniakea Supercluster → Observable universe → UniverseEach arrow (→) may be read as 'within' or 'part of'. A potentially hazardous object (PHO) is a near-Earth object – either an asteroid or a comet – with an orbit that can make exceptionally close approaches to the Earth and large enough to cause significant regional damage in the event of impact. They are defined as having a minimum orbital intersection distance with Earth of less than 0.05 astronomical units (19.5 lunar distances) and an absolute magnitude of 22 or brighter. Most of these objects are potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs), and a few are comets. As of August 2019 there are 2,007 known PHAs (about 10% of the total near-Earth population), of which 155 are estimated to be larger than one kilometer in diameter (see list of largest PHAs below). Most of the discovered PHAs are Apollo asteroids (1,601) and fewer belong to the group of Aten asteroids (169). A potentially hazardous object can be known not to be a threat to Earth for the next 100 years or more, if its orbit is reasonably well determined. Potentially hazardous asteroids with some threat of impacting Earth in the next 100 years are listed on the Sentry Risk Table. Well known potentially hazardous asteroids are normally only a hazard on a time scale of hundreds of years as the known orbit becomes more divergent, but recent discoveries with still poorly constrained orbits can be a shorter term impact risk. After several astronomical surveys, the number of known PHAs has increased tenfold since the end of the 1990s (see bar charts below). The Minor Planet Center's website List of the Potentially Hazardous Asteroids also publishes detailed information for these objects. An object is considered a PHO if its minimum orbit intersection distance (MOID) with respect to Earth is less than 0.05 AU (7,500,000 km; 4,600,000 mi) – approximately 19.5 lunar distances – and its absolute magnitude is brighter than 22, approximately corresponding to a diameter above 140 meters (460 ft). This is big enough to cause regional devastation to human settlements unprecedented in human history in the case of a land impact, or a major tsunami in the case of an ocean impact. Such impact events occur on average around once per 10,000 years. NEOWISE data estimates that there are 4,700 ± 1,500 potentially hazardous asteroids with a diameter greater than 100 meters. The two main scales used to categorize the impact hazards of asteroids are the Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale and the Torino Scale. Short-period comets currently with an Earth-MOID less than 0.05 AU include: 109P/Swift-Tuttle, 55P/Tempel–Tuttle, 15P/Finlay, 289P/Blanpain, 255P/Levy, 206P/Barnard–Boattini, 21P/Giacobini–Zinner, and 73P/Schwassmann–Wachmann. In 2012 NASA estimated 20 to 30 percent of these objects have been found. During an asteroid's close approaches to planets or moons other than the Earth, it will be subject to gravitational perturbation, modifying its orbit, and potentially changing a previously non-threatening asteroid into a PHA or vice versa. This is a reflection of the dynamic character of the Solar System. Several astronomical survey projects such as Lincoln Near-Earth Asteroid Research, Catalina Sky Survey and Pan-STARRS continue to search for more PHOs. Each one found is studied by various means, including optical, radar, and infrared to determine its characteristics, such as size, composition, rotation state, and to more accurately determine its orbit. Both professional and amateur astronomers participate in such observation and tracking. Asteroids larger than approximately 35 meters across can pose a threat to a town or city. However the diameter of most small asteroids is not well determined, as it is usually only estimated based on their brightness and distance, rather than directly measured from e.g. radar observations. For this reason NASA and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory use the more practical measure of absolute magnitude (H). Any asteroid with an absolute magnitude of 22.0 or brighter is assumed to be of the required size.