Analysis of variance

Analysis of variance (ANOVA) is a collection of statistical models and their associated estimation procedures (such as the 'variation' among and between groups) used to analyze the differences among group means in a sample. ANOVA was developed by statistician and evolutionary biologist Ronald Fisher. The ANOVA is based on the law of total variance, where the observed variance in a particular variable is partitioned into components attributable to different sources of variation. In its simplest form, ANOVA provides a statistical test of whether two or more population means are equal, and therefore generalizes the t-test beyond two means. While the analysis of variance reached fruition in the 20th century, antecedents extend centuries into the past according to Stigler. These include hypothesis testing, the partitioning of sums of squares, experimental techniques and the additive model. Laplace was performing hypothesis testing in the 1770s. The development of least-squares methods by Laplace and Gauss circa 1800 provided an improved method of combining observations (over the existing practices then used in astronomy and geodesy). It also initiated much study of the contributions to sums of squares. Laplace knew how to estimate a variance from a residual (rather than a total) sum of squares. By 1827, Laplace was using least squares methods to address ANOVA problems regarding measurements of atmospheric tides. Before 1800, astronomers had isolated observational errors resulting from reaction times (the 'personal equation') and had developed methods of reducing the errors. The experimental methods used in the study of the personal equation were later accepted by the emerging field of psychology which developed strong (full factorial) experimental methods to which randomization and blinding were soon added. An eloquent non-mathematical explanation of the additive effects model wasavailable in 1885. Ronald Fisher introduced the term variance and proposed its formal analysis in a 1918 article The Correlation Between Relatives on the Supposition of Mendelian Inheritance. His first application of the analysis of variance was published in 1921. Analysis of variance became widely known after being included in Fisher's 1925 book Statistical Methods for Research Workers. Randomization models were developed by several researchers. The first was published in Polish by Jerzy Neyman in 1923.