Seasonal Adequacy Risks

Decarbonization of the electricity sector and massive integration of variable RES, either large scale or small distributed, leads to increased need for regional cooperation in risk preparedness preparations to prevent, prepare for and manage electricity crisis situations as a result of natural disasters such as extreme weather conditions, malicious attacks or a fuel shortage. Seasonal Outlooks - namely the pan-European biannual adequacy assessments reports that ENTSO-E adopts and publishes as required by Regulation 714/2009 and, in the near future, the Risk Preparedness Regulation in Clean Energy Package - are important tools to support decision making by relevant stakeholders (MSs, NRAs, EC, ACER, Market Operators, etc.). As such, they require substantial improvements in methodologies and geographical scope with the aim to perform hourly market probabilistic simulations capable of providing comprehensive support for the establishment of countermeasures to ensure the desired adequacy levels and to take qualified decisions.