Regime shifts in trophic status and regional nutrient criteria for the Bohai Bay, China

Abstract Identifying trophic status shift and developing nutrient criteria were considered important for controlling coastal eutrophication. Based on data from 1980 to 2018, we used sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts and assessment of coastal trophic status models to detect regime shifts in trophic status in Bohai Bay (China). We identified four distinct periods: unimpaired (1980–1984), minimally impacted (1985–1994), tipping point (1995–1999) and severely degraded (2000–2018). Using the reference conditions at different trophic status, a frequency distribution analysis was performed to develop candidate nutrient criteria. By considering other factors, such as the quantity and quality of data and long-term nutrient variations, we determined recommended criteria for dissolved inorganic nitrogen (15.3 μmol L−1) and phosphorus (0.42 μmol L−1) in Bohai Bay. This study provides a novel and feasible approach to determine reference conditions for the determination of nutrient criteria for coastal waters.