Shifting challenges for Cinnamomum cassia production in the mountains of Northern Vietnam: spatial analysis combined with semi-structured interviews

Recent decades witnessed the fast increase of Cinnamomum cassia plantations in the mountains of Northern Vietnam. This contributes significantly to the local economy and the income of the families of the local ethnic minorities. However, C. cassia production in this region faces challenges related to the fast expansion and the potential lack of arable land in future. This paper develops a hybrid approach using spatial analysis combined with socioeconomic surveys to assess land suitability, to project land use change, and to analyze the eco-economic consequences of changed land use for C. cassia in Van Yen mountainous district (Yen Bai, Vietnam). An analytic hierarchy process (AHP) combined with a geographic information system (GIS) allows mapping suitable areas for C. cassia. A Markov–CA model projects the expected future expansion of C. cassia during the period 2020–2025. Results of socioeconomic surveys highlight the economic value of C. cassia and link the trees with the livelihood of local Yao, Hmong, and Tay farmers. The results show a map of land suitability, the likely increase of the C. cassia growing area by 2025, and ecological, income, and profitability factors challenging C. cassia plantations. Van Yen provides favorable conditions for growing C. cassia. The highly suitable areas offer the highest economic return of tree production: approximately 55,530 $US per hectare by the end of the 15-year period. The growth of C. cassia takes more unsuitable land: 54.8% of the unsuitable land will be used to grow this tree by 2025. The study findings imply policies for improving the efficiency of land use and land quality and promoting the global value chain of spice products in order to ensure the sustainability of C. cassia production in the mountains of Northern Vietnam. This hybrid approach also provides an advanced tool for land suitability analysis, land management, and land use planning in Vietnam.