Prediction of Oilfield Production with Variable Coefficient Modified GM(1,1) Model

Prediction model for production decline is an important method for oil-gas reservoir engineering research.In this paper,a variable coefficient GM(1,1) model and parameter estimation method are developed on the basis of gray forecast model theory.The variable coefficient GM(1,1) model and original data transformation modify the gray model.Case study indicates that the improved gray forecast model is of higher accuracy for prediction of oilfield production.