Monte Carlo Simulation Forecasting of Maritime Ferry Safety and Resilience

Monte Carlo simulation method application to safety prediction of complex system related to its operation process is presented. Theoretical backgrounds concerned with safety analysis of complex system impacted by its operating conditions are proposed to construct Monte Carlo simulation approach to system safety characteristics evaluation. Next, this approach is applied to safety prediction of maritime ferry technical system operating at variable conditions and the considered system main safety characteristics are determined. Moreover, the maritime ferry safety and resilience indicators are evaluated. The values of these characteristics are compared with their values determined analytically.