A regression analysis of the effect of natural disaster on agriculture

Based on the grain production data and agriculture statistical data from 1995 to 2005, factors of grain production in China is discussed by the model of gray correlative analysis. The results show that Consumption of chemical fertilizers, Effective irrigated area, grain sown area and stricken area, Total power of agriculture machinery are the most important factors that affect grain production. To investigate the impacts of natural disaster on productivity of Jiangsu Province's grain production, Agricultural productivity was specified as a function of its natural disaster and gross additions of fixed assets during the year. Least square (LS) was employed to estimate equation parameters. It reports the results of a regression analysis of the relationship between rate of suffered grain production and agricultural productivity. The study is based on the analysis of the yearbook data for the period 1978 – 2004.