Performance of Weather Forecast Models in the Rescue of Dr. Ronald Shemenski from the South Pole in April 2001

Abstract In late April 2001, an unprecedented late-season flight to Amundsen–Scott South Pole Station was made in the evacuation of Dr. Ronald Shemenski, a medical doctor seriously ill with pancreatitis. This case study analyzes the performance of four of the numerical weather prediction models that aided meteorologists in forecasting weather throughout the operation: 1) the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) Polar MM5 (fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model), 2) the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Aviation Model (AVN), 3) the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global forecast model, and 4) the NCAR Global MM5. To identify specific strengths and weaknesses, key variables for each model are statistically analyzed for all forecasts initialized between 21 and 25 April for several points over West Antarctica at the surface and at 500- and 700-hPa levels. The ECMWF model performs with the highest ov...