Embedding spatiotemporal changes in carbon storage into urban agglomeration ecosystem management — A case study of the Yangtze River Delta, China

Abstract Changes in land use/land cover caused by urban expansion have changed the soil respiration conditions and surface vegetation, which, in turn, affect carbon storage in an ecosystem. Carbon storage is often used as an indicator of the state of ecosystem services in the environment, which provide fundamental support to the human population. Therefore, we predicted the impacts of different development models on future carbon storage in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region by analyzing the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and driving factors of carbon storage from 1990 to 2015. Taking the YRD urban agglomeration as a case study, the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs and future land use simulation models were used to simulate and predict carbon storage in 2050 under four development scenarios based on the patterns in 2015. The results showed that the YRD urban agglomeration experienced carbon storage losses of 1210.54 Tg during 1990–2015, which were driven by socioeconomic factors rather than natural causes. The region is expected to continue experiencing losses of 783, 638, 697, and 621 Tg from 2015 to 2050 under the baseline, slow, fast, and harmonious development scenarios, respectively. Our study presents the past spatiotemporal evolution of carbon stocks and the impact of different urbanization development models on ecosystem carbon storage, and can provide a reference for decision-making and stakeholders to determine regional development models and improve urban agglomeration management strategies.