Intrinsic ecological dynamics drive biodiversity turnover in model metacommunities.

Turnover of species composition through time is frequently observed in ecosystems. It is often interpreted as indicating the impact of changes in the environment. Continuous turnover due solely to ecological dynamics—species interactions and dispersal—is also known to be theoretically possible; however the prevalence of such autonomous turnover in natural communities remains unclear. Here we demonstrate that observed patterns of compositional turnover and other important macroecological phenomena can be reproduced in large spatially explicit model ecosystems, without external forcing such as environmental change or the invasion of new species into the model. We find that autonomous turnover is triggered by the onset of ecological structural instability—the mechanism that also limits local biodiversity. These results imply that the potential role of autonomous turnover as a widespread and important natural process is underappreciated, challenging assumptions implicit in many observation and management tools. Quantifying the baseline level of compositional change would greatly improve ecological status assessments. Change in ecological communities can be driven by extrinsic forces, but the degree to which intrinsic population dynamics drive turnover has remained unclear. Here the authors use metacommunity modelling to show that biodiversity change previously attributed to external drivers can be explained based on intrinsic ecosystem dynamics.