A retrospective view of the development of the Gulf of Bothnia ecosystem

Abstract We analysed long-term monitoring data from 1979 to 2012 in the Gulf of Bothnia, the northernmost extension of the Baltic Sea, to examine changes in the summer food web structure, and to reveal the factors causing the observed changes. Of the two sub-basins in the Gulf of Bothnia, the Bothnian Sea is more dynamic in its hydrography and food web structure than the Bothnian Bay, due to the variable influence of the more eutrophic and more saline Baltic Proper. Variation in deep-water intrusion from the main Baltic Proper, and its effect on salinity and stratification, had a clear effect on the phyto- and zooplankton communities in the Bothnian Sea. Probably due to this intrusion, the nutrient status in this basin has also changed in terms of nitrogen limitation, with subsequent class- and genus-level changes in phytoplankton community composition. The migration of cod to the Bothnian Sea during the 1980s had profound effects on the herring population, but cascading effects affecting the basis of the food web were not obvious. In contrast to a more pronounced interplay of both top-down control and bottom-up nutrient limitation of the Bothnian Sea, the Bothnian Bay food web was mostly driven by hydrography and climate, and major changes were observed in the basis of the food web. Community changes were observed in both basins in the Gulf of Bothnia throughout the entire time period. Human influence considerably affects both the basis of the food web and its very top, where man has replaced the natural top predators. Though the eutrophication status of the Gulf has been rather stable, the results indicate that the potential symptoms should be surveyed specifically in the Bothnian Sea, and that management of Baltic herring stocks requires an understanding, and thus monitoring, of the entire food web.