Epidemiologic Analyses of Spatial Clustering of Bovine Ephemeral Fever Outbreaks I.Application of the Negative Binomial Distribution

An epidemic that propagates through a population results in a contagious spatial pattern. The incidence per farm of bovine ephemeral fever (BEF) outbreaks in the 22 areas of Fukuoka Prefecture in 1988 was well explained by the negative binomial distribution, which is generally considered, as the clustering of the outbreaks. Furthermore, the clustering was analyzed with three categories of vaccination rate (No. 1-40%, and 40-80%). As a result, the no vaccination and high vaccination rate (41-80%) groups tended to shift to similarly the Poisson distribution. It may be speculated that an insufficient vaccination control of the BEF was influenced with the clustering.