Modelling the future : ergodicity and the science of the actuary : editorial

The heart of actuarial science lies in its models. Whether our models are deterministic or stochastic, they constitute the basis for actuarial advice and decision-making. Most of our models are derived from experience. Some of them, such as those affected by future interest rates, are calibrated to information related to current expectations as reflected in the market. But what happens when we have evidence that, in some fundamental sense, the future will not be like the past?