Open Source Energy System Modeling Using Break-Even Costs to Inform State-Level Policy: A North Carolina Case Study

Rigorous model-based analysis can help inform state-level energy and climate policy. In this study, we utilize an open-source energy system optimization model and publicly available datasets to examine future electricity generation, CO2 emissions, and CO2 abatement costs for the North Carolina electric power sector through 2050. Model scenarios include uncertainty in future fuel prices, a hypothetical CO2 cap, and an extended renewable portfolio standard. Across the modeled scenarios, solar photovoltaics represent the most cost-effective low-carbon technology, while trade-offs among carbon constrained scenarios largely involve natural gas and renewables. We also develop a new method to calculate break-even costs, which indicate the capital costs at which different technologies become cost-effective within the model. Significant variation in break-even costs are observed across different technologies and scenarios. We illustrate how break-even costs can be used to inform the development of an extended rene...