Determination of the Threshold for Extreme Load Extrapolation Based on Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Technology

The peak over threshold (POT) model is commonly used in extreme load extrapolation. Due to the important role that the threshold plays in establishing a POT model, a method to select the suitable threshold is designed based on multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) technology. The mean deviation in probability distribution function, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, and Chi-Square test are employed as the test criteria. An entropy method is applied to obtain the weight values of these tests. The VIKOR method is adopted to obtain compromise solutions according to the corresponding criteria and weight values. The POT requirement is used to determine a suitable threshold. The effectiveness and feasibility of this method are validated by the load time history measured in experiment and generated by simulation. A comparative analysis between this method and two other common methods is also conducted. The proposed method based on MCDM shows better performance.