Evaluation and Testing of Regional Models Sensitivity Analyses of the Best Practice Model (BPM) in the New York Metropolitan Region (Part I)

Activity-based microsimulation models are gaining increasing attention from MPOs around the country. These models earn their reputation by having shown their theoretical superiority over the traditional four-step models. The New York Best Practice Model (NYBPM) is one of a relatively few operating activity-based microsimulation models in the country and thus provide us a working platform to test their practical advantages over the traditional four-step models. The authors accomplish this goal by examining the sensitivity of the model in response to changes in the input. More specifically, they conduct a series of sensitivity analysis to the NYBPM by modifying the inputs relating to changes in policy, socioeconomic characteristics, and population and employment levels and comparing the results to those in the 2002 base scenario. The results suggest that the model results are mostly consistent with the authors' expectations, except the total journey productions when they change the population and employment levels in selected locations. While the results provide empirical support to the model and validate its wide applications in the region, they call for further investigation in the journey production aspect.