Indicator of Agriculture Vulnerability to Climatic Extremes: A Conceptual Model with Case Study for the Northeast Brazil

The Northeast Brazil (NEB) is known for its temporal and spatial variability of precipitation. Several studies have investigated this variability in order to understand the damaging episodes such as droughts and floods. The phenomenon of drought in the NEB is a complex topic due to affecting millions of people and being the object of study in several fields of knowledge. One way to try to argue about this phenomenon is through the concept of vulnerability. The “operability” of this broad concept in natural disasters is a complex task. In order to measure an indicator of vulnerability it is necessary large amount of data from different areas of knowledge, among which include: meteorology, socio-environmental, economic, public health, among other areas. The main objective of this study is to create an index of vulnerability to climate extremes (drought and flood) for the NEB and to compare this rate with those found in the scientific literature. The data that will be used in this study are from ANA (Agencia Nacional das aguas), IBGE (Instituto Brasileiro de Georgrafia e Estatistica), and Ministry of National integration.