Time horizon for AFV emission savings under Tier 2

Implementation of the Federal Tier 2 vehicular emission standards according to the schedule presented in the December, 1999 Final Rule will result in substantial reductions of NMHC, CO, NO{sub x}, and fine particle emissions from motor vehicles. Currently, when compared to Tier 1 and even NLEV certification requirements, the emissions performance of automobiles and light-duty trucks powered by non-petroleum (especially, gaseous) fuels (i.e., vehicles collectively termed AFVs) enjoy measurable advantage over their gasoline- and diesel-fueled counterparts over the full Federal Test Procedure and, especially, in Bag 1 (cold start). For the lighter end of these vehicle classes, this advantage may disappear shortly after 2004 under the new standards, but should continue for a longer period (perhaps beyond 2008) for the heavier end as well as for heavy-duty vehicles relative to diesel-fueled counterparts. Because of the continuing commitment of the U.S. Department of Energy's Clean Cities coalitions to the acquisition and operation of AFVs of many types and size classes, it is important for them to know in which classes their acquisitions will remain clear relative to the petroleum-fueled counterparts they might otherwise procure. This paper provides an approximate timeline for and expected magnitude of such savings, assuming that full implementation of the Tier 2 standards covering both vehicular emissions and fuel sulfur limits proceeds on schedule. The pollutants of interest are primary ozone precursors and fine particulate matter from fuel combustion.