Fuzzy Delphi Technique for Forecasting and Screening Items

Delphi technique is a group knowledge acquisition method that has been used for over half a century. Delphi technique calculations are based on experts‘ opinions. Therefore, any error or inconsistency in the assessment of experts‘ opinions affects the result of calculations. In traditional Delphi approaches, although experts‘ mental competencies and abilities are used for comparisons, the quantification of experts‘ opinions cannot completely reflect the human thinking style. Using fuzzy sets is more consistent with human linguistic and sometimes vague descriptions and it is better for decision-makings in the real world by applying fuzzy numbers. The error level is reduced using fuzzy sets. A traditional challenge of Delphi method is solving the rounds of Delphi technique. This study indicated that the fuzzy Delphi technique could be used in a single round for screening criteria. A clear solution was also given for ending the rounds of Delphi technique.