Landslides: Prediction of Travel Distance and Guidelines for Vulnerability of Persons

The Geotechnical Engineering Office of Hong Kong database of landslides for the period 1984-1993, containing over 3,000 landslide records, and data for major landslides before this period, was made available to the authors for the purpose of a landslide risk assessment study. Data from over 1,100 of these landslide records in man-modified slopes was collated, processed and analysed by statistical means. Multiple regression models, based on slope geometry input variables, were developed for the prediction of landslide travel distance onto a horizontal surface below the slope. Although developed for man-modified slopes in Hong Kong, the models can be applied in similar geological situations elsewhere (weathered granite and volcanics), are suited for use in landslide risk zoning applications to areas below man-modified slopes, and for the assessment of the risk for individual cuts and fills. Guidelines on the vulnerability of persons in various landslide situations, based on the review of the same data, are also provided.