Modeling Current and Future Potential Geographical Distribution of Carpinus tientaiensis, a Critically Endangered Species from China

Future climate change will have serious impacts on species survival and distribution and will likely lead to the extinction of some species classified as endangered. Carpinus tientaiensis (Betulaceae), a unique and endangered species in China, has restricted distribution and a small population, indicating an urgent need for its protection. However, research on its current distribution or the influence that climate change will have on its future survival and distribution is limited. We used a MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software to predict the current and future niches of C. tientaiensis. The current suitable distribution area of C. tientaiensis is small, mainly in east China, south Zhejiang and Anhui, and central and southern mountainous areas of Taiwan province. The core suitable areas are concentrated in the Xianxialing and Kuocang mountains in south Zhejiang, the southern mountains of Taiwan, and the Dabie, Huangshan and Jiuhua mountains in south Anhui. Among the 15 BIOCLIM variables examined, the precipitation of the driest quarter (bio17) was found to be the most important factor limiting C. tientaiensis survival and distribution. Future field investigations will focus on the Xianxialing and Kuocang mountains, as they may have unidentified wild C. tientaiensis communities. In the future, the Kuocang, Dapan and Tiantai mountains in east Zhejiang, and the high-altitude areas of Dabie and Jiuhua mountains in south Anhui, will be suitable for C. tientaiensis ex situ conservation and cultivation. However, the suitable distribution and core suitable areas for C. tientaiensis will decrease sharply as they are susceptible to climate shocks. Moreover, the suitable distribution area of C. tientaiensis is predicted to move slightly north and obviously eastward. Therefore, we suggest that strengthen conservation and management efforts for C. tientaiensis in its original habitats, and actively carry out ex situ conservation and artificial breeding in botanical gardens.