Warming-driven migration of core microbiota indicates soil property changes at continental scale

Abstract Terrestrial species are predicted to migrate northward under global warming conditions, yet little is known about the direction and magnitude of change in microbial distribution patterns. In this continental-scale study with more than 1600 forest soil samples, we verify the existence of core microbiota and lump them into a manageable number of eco-clusters based on microbial habitat preferences. By projecting the abundance differences of eco-clusters between future and current climatic conditions, we observed the potential warming-driven migration of the core microbiota under warming, partially verified by a field warming experiment at Southwest China. Specifically, the species that favor low pH are potentially expanding and moving northward to medium-latitudes (25°–45°N), potentially implying that warm temperate forest would be under threat of soil acidification with warming. The eco-cluster of high-pH with high-annual mean temperature (AMT) experienced significant abundance increases at middle- (35°–45°N) to high-latitudes (> 45°N), especially under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, likely resulting in northward expansion. Furthermore, the eco-cluster that favors low-soil organic carbon (SOC) was projected to increase under warming scenarios at low-latitudes ( 45°N) the changes in relative abundance of this eco-cluster is inversely related with the temperature variation trends, suggesting microbes-mediated soil organic carbon changes are more responsive to temperature variation in colder areas. These results have vital implications for the migration direction of microbial communities and its potential ecological consequences in future warming scenarios.