Recommendations for model identification for MPC of an all-Air HVAC system

Rule-based control (RBC) strategies are often unable to execute the optimal control action, which leads to unnecessary energy consumption and suboptimal comfort. Model predictive control (MPC) is a dynamic control strategy for heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems that is mostly more capable of performing optimal control actions. The identification process of predictive models is an essential aspect of MPC. However, this model identification process remains time consuming due to the large variation in buildings and systems. The aim of this paper is to determine guidelines to identify predictive grey-box models more time efficient, thus enhancing the applicability of MPC.This paper focusses on a case study building equipped with an all-air HVAC system, which combines ventilation, heating and cooling. Making both temperature and CO2-concentration key parameters to predict. The grey-box model represents an open zone in a landscaped office, making the influence of neighbouring zones an additional challenge.Different models for predicting the zone temperature and CO2-concentration are identified, evaluated and validated using CTSM-R. The following aspects are studied: the dataset size, the influence of neighbouring zones, the difference between winter and summer conditions, number of states and the prediction horizon.A three state RC-model with the implementation of the zone temperature of one neighbouring zone is preferred for predicting the indoor temperature with an acceptable prediction horizon of one day. However, this temperature model is not suitable during sunny periods. A simple model representing a mass balance obtains accurate predictions of the zone CO2-concentration for a timestep of 15 minutes. For both model types the utilization of 5-day datasets is favoured over 12-day datasets due to a shorter monitoring period, lower prediction error and an easier parameter convergence. The usage of 12-day datasets is only preferred when an accurate estimation of the thermal inertia is pursued.