Оцінка сценаріїв розвитку ядерної генерації України після 2030 року

Prognosis data on the production and consumption of electricity in Ukraine were used to analyze the development of nuclear generation for Ukraine after 2030. The calculation was performed using the MESSAGE computer code provided within Ukrainian activities in the IAEA INPRO project. Assessments were carried out for the period till 2100 and for the open nuclear fuel cycle (NFC) with advanced light-water reactors, partially closed NFC with CANDU reactors and closed NFC with fast reactor. For different NFCs, dynamics of commissioning new nuclear power units and accumulation of spent nuclear fuel and products of its reprocessing were predicted. Prospects for development of open NFC in Ukraine by 2100 with long-term storage (deferred decision) and reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel were analyzed. A model of Ukraine’s energy system was developed for the IAEA MESSAGE code.