Use of a non-planning driving background change methodology to assess the land-use planning impact on the environment

Abstract The implementation of land-use planning (LUP) impacts on the environment and may degrade regional environmental quality due to the changes in land-use patterns. To minimize the environmental impact of non-LUP driven (NPD) land-use background changes (LUBC), we propose an NPD land-use background change (NPD-LUBC) methodology to improve the LUP environmental impact assessment (LUPEA) process. With the application of the state-impact-state (SIS) framework and spatial information technologies including remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS), the methodology was tested on the eastern Chinese city of Lianyungang. The results indicate that (1) our proposed methodology is capable of distinguishing the environmental impact in implementing a target LUP, i.e. a LUP scheme to be assessed, from those driven by NPD-LUBC; (2) the prediction of NPD Land-use pattern simulated through the discrimination of NPD forces provides the basic data to support the LUPEA using our proposed methodology; (3) SO2, PM10, and COD emitted into the atmosphere and water are the major pollutants considered in the LUPEA of the city; and (4) despite the positive impacts of the comprehensive land-use change under the direction of target LUP, the implementation of LUP would have negative impacts on the regional environment in the entire study area and in individual counties/districts respectively in 2020. Our proposed methodology provides a new and operable way for the areas with data to simulate NPD land-use pattern and predict the individual indicator values for the assessment.