CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS FROM TRANSPORTATION: TRENDS, DRIVING FACTORS, AND FORCES FOR CHANGE. IN: HANDBOOK OF TRANSPORT AND THE ENVIRONMENT

In December 1997, leaders of many world governments met in Kyoto, Japan to discuss a protocol for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from a number of anthropogenic sources, particularly carbon emissions from the use of fossil fuels. While the details of each country's commitments vary greatly, all parties were aware of the key role transportation played in the rise of emissions from fossil fuels. Figures in this chapter show that while there are differences in the slope of the rise in emissions vs. income by country, and differences in the level at a given income, there is little sign of any break in the connection between increased income and increased emissions. For travel, higher incomes mean more travel, increasingly by private auto or air; for freight, higher incomes mean higher volumes of freight, increasingly by trucking. On the surface then, the coupling between per capita income and per capita emissions from transport appears strong if no other forces intervene. Confronting this issue depends on a good understanding of the forces driving energy use and emissions relating to transportation. This chapter first focuses on these issues, returning at the close to a discussion of consequences these trends have for policies. These are illustrated using data from a selection of IEA countries, and then trends indicated in Figure 2 for other parts of the world are interpreted.