[Medical demography in Tunisia: current situation and perspectives].

BACKGROUND: Health human resources management is one of the important determinants of health care access equity. AIMS: To analyse the trend of Tunisian medical density during 2000-2009 and to predict its situation by 2024. METHODS: Current medical density was calculated using Bar Council of Physicians of Tunisia database. Medical density was calculated and analysed for the period 2000-2009 then modelled by 2024 (estimate of needs and supply). RESULTS: The active medical density raised by 36% during the period 2000-2009 with a higher increase for specialists. The proportion of non-active physicians rose from 4.6% to 15.2% in 2009. Increasing feminization of medical density and persistence of its regional disparities. By the year 2024, 217 physicians for 100,000 inhabitants would be required while the supply would correspond to 212/100 000 inhabitants. CONCLUSION: medical human resources have indeed globally improved. However, some lacks remain and adequate measures are required, based on a rational planning directed to satisfy the population needs and to allow health equity.