Recent tropospheric ozone changes – A pattern dominated by slow or no growth

Abstract Longer-term (i.e., 20–40 years) tropospheric ozone (O 3 ) time series obtained from surface and ozonesonde observations have been analyzed to assess possible changes with time through 2010. The time series have been selected to reflect relatively broad geographic regions and where possible minimize local scale influences, generally avoiding sites close to larger urban areas. Several approaches have been used to describe the changes with time, including application of a time series model, running 15-year trends, and changes in the distribution by month in the O 3 mixing ratio. Changes have been investigated utilizing monthly averages, as well as exposure metrics that focus on specific parts of the distribution of hourly average concentrations (e.g., low-, mid-, and high-level concentration ranges). Many of the longer time series (∼30 years) in mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, including those in Japan, show a pattern of significant increase in the earlier portion of the record, with a flattening over the last 10–15 years. It is uncertain if the flattening of the O 3 change over Japan reflects the impact of O 3 transported from continental East Asia in light of reported O 3 increases in China. In the Canadian Arctic, declines from the beginning of the ozonesonde record in 1980 have mostly rebounded with little overall change over the period of record. The limited data in the tropical Pacific suggest very little change over the entire record. In the southern hemisphere subtropics and mid-latitudes, the significant increase observed in the early part of the record has leveled off in the most recent decade. At the South Pole, a decline observed during the first half of the 35-year record has reversed, and O 3 has recovered to levels similar to the beginning of the record. Our understanding of the causes of the longer-term changes is limited, although it appears that in the mid-latitudes of the northern hemisphere, controls on O 3 precursors have likely been a factor in the leveling off or decline from earlier O 3 increases.