Vulnerability of Cerrado threatened mammals: an integrative landscape and climate modeling approach

Species vulnerability is defined based on their exposition, sensitivity and adaptive capacity to a given impact. Considering limitations to estimate the sensitivity component, we developed a framework integrating the knowledge on ecological niche models and extinction thresholds, generating species sensitivity scenarios at the landscape scale. Our aim was to assess species and landscape vulnerability for threatened mammal species from the Brazilian Cerrado by considering seven types of human-impacts and climatic suitability. We assumed that climatic-suitable landscapes with less than 50% of remaining natural vegetation are not suitable for species, while in landscapes with 50–60% of remaining natural vegetation, populations are highly vulnerable. We found a spatial match between climatic-suitable areas and highly-impacted landscape (< 50% of remaining vegetation), specifically in southern Cerrado. We attribute this result to two main reasons: (1) similar characteristics affecting both suitability for species and human activities; and (2) highly impacted landscapes are likely to shelter threatened species. Vulnerable cells, with 50–60% of remaining vegetation, were distributed throughout Cerrado, meaning that there is no spatial bias within their distribution. Range-restricted species exhibited higher variability in vulnerability compared to widely-distributed species, what could be explained by human occupation being spatially clumped. Agriculture is the major impact affecting highly-impacted landscapes (< 50% of remaining vegetation), transport infra-structure has higher impact on vulnerable landscapes. We believe that our approach can be easily applied for assessing species and landscape vulnerability in many ecological domains by adapting extinction thresholds according to the focus taxon.