부영양 하천의 수질예측을 위한 QUAL2E와 QUAL-NIER 모델의 비교·평가

It is often believed that a more complex water quality model is better able to simulate reality. The more complex a model, however, the more parameters are involved thus increases the cost and uncertainty of modeling processes. The objective of this study was to compare the performance of two steady-state river water quality models, QUAL2E and QUAL-NIER, that have different complexity. QUAL-NIER is recently developed by National Institute of Environmental Research aiming to enhance the simulation capability of QUAL2E for eutrophic rivers. It is a carbon based model that considers different forms, such as dissolved versus particulate and labile versus refractory, of carbon and nutrients, and the contribution of autochthonous loading due to algal metabolism. The models were simultaneously applied to Nakdong River and their performance was evaluated by statistical verification with field data. Both models showed similar performance and satisfactorily replicated the longitudinal variations of BOD, T-N, T-P, Chl.a concentrations along the river. The algal blooms occurred at the stagnant reaches of downstream were also reasonably captured by the models. Although QUAL-NIER somewhat reduced the magnitude of errors, the hypothesis tests revealed no statistical evidence to justify its better performance. The contribution of autochthonous carbon and nutrient load by algal metabolism was insignificant because the hydraulic retention time is relatively short compare to the time scale of kinetic reactions. The results imply that the kinetic processes included in QUAL-NIER are too complex for the nature and scale of the real processes involved, thus needs to be optimized for improving the modeling efficiency.