Prediction, Monitoring, and Interpretation of Dam Leakage Flow via Adaptative Kernel Extreme Learning Machine

Abstract The magnitude of leakage in the dam body and its foundation can be used as an important indicator in dam risk management. This study presents a data mining and monitoring framework for safety control of the dam leakage flow. First, the influencing factors in dam leakage flow are investigated. Second, a kernel extreme learning machine (KELM) is trained to predict dam leakage, where the parameters are optimized adaptively by parallel multi-population Jaya algorithm. Finally, a novel global sensitivity analysis is proposed to evaluate the relative importance of each input variable based on the KELM. Monitoring data of leakage flow from the concrete face rockfill dam in a pumped-storage power station is used as a vehicle for post-possessing. The simulated results of the case study reveal that KELM achieves a satisfactory prediction of the leakage flow. It is found that the water level fluctuation and rainfall have a significant impact on leakage magnitude. The sensitivity analysis provides a useful qualitative metric of dam leakage, which is of great value for dam safety monitoring and operation.