Long-term trend of regional passenger road transport demand and emission estimation under exhaust emission regulation scenario in Thailand

Economic development, transport demand, and air pollution are interrelated. The heterogeneity of economic development among regions and the freezing of exhaust emission regulations for approximately a decade in Thailand were the motivations for this study. Herein we provide a comprehensive analysis of vehicle exhaust emission projections for up to 2050 with specific regional breakdown for passenger transport mode and volume; we also provide region-wise and mode-wise outcomes to help understand the effects of enhancing exhaust emissions regulation for future air pollutant emissions. The results from this study reveal the limitations of current regulations and establish the need to enhance regulations within this decade to cope with air pollution for the long-term growth of regional economic development.