Projection of actual evapotranspiration using the COSMO-CLM regional climate model under global warming scenarios of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C in the Tarim River basin, China

Abstract Actual evapotranspiration ( ETa ) is an important component of the water cycle. The goals for limiting global warming to below 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels and aspiring to 1.5 °C were negotiated in the Paris Agreement in 2015. In this study, outputs from the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM) for the Tarim River basin (TRB) were used to calculate ETa with an advection-aridity model, and changes in ETa under global warming scenarios of 1.5 °C (2020 to 2039) and 2.0 °C (2040 to 2059) were analyzed. Comparison of warming at the global and regional scale showed that regional 1.5 °C warming would occur later than the global average, while regional 2.0 °C warming would occur earlier than the global average. For global warming of 1.5 °C, the average ETa in the TRB is about 222.7 mm annually, which represents an increase of 6.9 mm relative to the reference period (1986–2005), with obvious increases projected for spring and summer. The greatest increases in ETa were projected for the northeast and southwest. The increment in the annual ETa across the TRB considering a warming of 1.5 °C was 4.3 mm less than that for a warming of 2.0 °C, and the reduction between the two levels of warming was most pronounced in the summer, when ETa was 3.4 mm smaller. The reduction in the increment of annual ETa for warming of 1.5 °C relative to warming of 2.0 °C was most pronounced in the southwest and northeast, where it was projected to be 8.2 mm and 9.3 mm smaller, respectively. It is suggested that the higher ETa under a warming of 2.0 °C mainly results from an increase in the sunshine duration (net radiation) in the southwestern basin and an increase in precipitation in the northeastern basin. Vapor is removed from the limited surface water supplies by ETa . The results of this study are therefore particularly relevant for water resource planning in the TRB.