The annual abundance of dengue and Zika vector Aedes albopictus and its stubbornness to suppression

Abstract The mosquito Aedes albopictus is a competent vector for more than 25 arboviruses, including dengue and Zika, and the sole vector for the 2014 unprecedented dengue outbreak in southern China. Due to the lack of a deep understanding of how its seasonal abundance is tied to environments, current methods have failed to control its prevalence and expansion on a large scale. In this paper, we develop a comprehensive model of difference equations that incorporates mosquito age at the four developmental stages, egg diapause, larval density competition, and the meteorological data for temperature, precipitation, and humidity, to predict the mosquito abundance over time in southern China. The generated temporal profile is robust against the variation of initial inputs, and matches well with the measurements in a northeast district in Guangzhou in 2013 and 2014 with a correlation coefficient R 2  ≈ 0.9511. We find that chemical interventions have only a temporary effect; once the intervention is terminated, mosquito population bounces back quickly. Moreover, improper adulticide applications facilitate a fast spread of insecticide resistance. The resistance spread is quantified and the optimal intensity and frequency of chemical interventions are simulated. These findings remain to be tested by more real data and our methods can be adapted to other geographic areas and/or mosquito species for designing better mosquito control strategies.