Simulating the impacts of a New Madrid earthquake on the regional electric infrastructure

This paper summarizes the methodology and simulation tools used by Argonne National Laboratory to examine the impact that a high-intensity New Madrid seismic event could have on local electric assets and the performance of surrounding regional electric networks. Local impacts are expressed in terms of the number of assets (under various equipment categories) most likely to be damaged. The total megawatt equivalent of damage-prone power plants is assessed, as is an estimate of power flows that could be disrupted. Damage functions and fragility curves are employed to identify specific electric assets that could be affected. The potential of large-scale electric system collapse is explored via a series of network simulations. The methodology employs two models, the FEMA-developed HAZUS MH-MR3 and Argonne-developed EPfast tool for simulating uncontrolled islanding in electric systems. The models are described, and their complementary roles are discussed.