Inequity fertility and economic opportunity. Family planning makes a difference.

This technical brief explores the impact of differential trends in fertility decline among wealth quintiles on the population age structure of four countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and the possible trajectory of these trends through 2050. It further explores the impact of these trends on demographic indicators such as population growth median age and dependency as well as access to economic opportunity for the poorest segments of society. Countries in the region have significant fertility disparities across income quintiles; the richest quintile (20 percent of the population) has largely achieved low fertility while the poorest quintile continues to have high fertility. Fertility trends directly impact the age structure of the population which in turn determines the critical ratio of the number of dependents to the number in the working ages. This analysis suggests that continued high fertility in the poorest quintile in most countries in SSA creates high dependency ratios thereby compromising the ability of the poor to access economic opportunities. This has the potential to lock the poor into a cycle of poverty for generations. In contrast the richest quintile has experienced historical fertility declines that have produced low dependency creating greater opportunity for investments in the health and education of young dependents and savings and capital accumulation (cashing in on the so-called “demographic dividend”). If fertility decline is not accelerated across wealth quintiles the resulting inequities could limit the realization of economic benefits for the country as a whole. Fertility decline should be considered a critical element of inclusive and sustained economic growth in Africa.