Regime Shifts of the Marine Ecosystem with Copula

Based on the ecological dynamics model consisting of algae and herbivorous fish,different bifurcation regions for the control parameters were obtained with nonlinear dynamical analysis.Then with Copula method and field datat,he probability distribution for the bifurcation parameters was obtained.Markov chain model for the state transition was con-structed with considering bifurcation regions as different states.Using Monte Carlot,he transition probability matrix and stationary probability of the regime shifts were achieved.Lastt,he values of the bifurcation parameters which maximize the stationary probability of the desired state were calculated.