The Impact of Demographic Structure on Housing Price in Beijing Based on System Dynamics

This paper established a system dynamics model involving demographic structure and the housing market, and conducted a simulation on housing price in Beijing between 2000 and 2050. The main findings are: (1) demographic structure shows different influence paths on housing price, urbanization rate and proportion of external population have influence on the potential population in need of housing, while proportion of labor force shows impact on per capita disposable income; (2) housing price in Beijing will slightly drop and then grow in the 35-year simulation period, while housing price and income ratio will be declining and become relatively stable; (3) urbanization rate and proportion of external population has positive affect on housing price and housing price income ratio, while proportion of labor force has positive affect on housing price but negative affect on housing price income ratio.