Modelling bioeconomy futures for Eastern Africa

This paper aims to explore the potential of Bioeconomy as a pathway for sustainable transformation of economies of East Africa. Although East Africa region has shown good growth, this has been accompanied by rising concerns about sustainability, as population growth is putting significant strain on biodiversity undermining capacity for future growth. The search for a new growth pathways points to leveraging bioeconomy. To get insights on the viability of this pathway, this study simulated several scenarios to help inform a regional bioeconomy strategy.,To get insights into the viability of this pathway, a conceptual model to capture demand and supply drivers was constructed and simulations were conducted by using the International Futures (IFs) modelling platform.,The analysis points to the potential of a bioeconomy-driven economic strategy to drive transformation. However, the simulation points to the fact that if not well thought out, it can also be costly in terms of environment, and indeed such a strategy can lead to a disaster in the long run. It is also clear that having a strong Bioeconomy does not necessarily mean being self-sufficient in agricultural production. If saving the forests or increasing forest cover means agricultural imports rise this should be fine. Also, a strong Bioeconomy does not necessarily mean development objectives are fully met.,The IFs platform is a general platform and thus cannot capture the specific enablers for a Bioeconomy. So strategy development should use the result as starting point.,Also, a strong bioeconomy does not necessarily mean that development objectives are fully met. A bioeconomy strategy should be part of package of strategy to ensure sustainable and inclusive growth.,While Bioeconomy is increasingly gaining attention, many countries have proposed strategies the analysis tends to be qualitative. No quantitative simulation of this new economic pathways has yet been conducted in East Africa. The IFs platform is a general simulation platform; therefore, the parameters available in the model cannot fully capture what Bioeconomy is. This analysis needs to be supplemented by a qualitative scenarios analysis.