Using Digital Surveillance Tools for Near Real-Time Mapping of the Risk of International Infectious Disease Spread: Ebola as a Case Study
2019
In our increasingly interconnected world, it is crucial to understand
the risk of an outbreak originating in one country or region and
spreading to the rest of the world. Digital disease surveillance
tools such as ProMED and HealthMap have the potential to serve as
important early warning systems as well as complement the field
surveillance during an ongoing outbreak. Here we present a flexible
statistical model that uses data produced from digital surveillance
tools (ProMED and HealthMap) to forecast short term incidence trends
in a spatially explicit manner. The model was applied to data collected by ProMED and HealthMap during the 2013-2016 West African Ebola epidemic. The model was able to predict each instance of international spread 1 to 4 weeks in advance. Our study highlights the potential and limitations of using
publicly available digital surveillance data for assessing outbreak dynamics in real-time.
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