Some Indicators of the Present and Future Climate of Serbia According to the SRES-A1B Scenario

According to the last IPCC report, there are several indications that the area of Southeastern Europe might experience large climate changes due to the increase of the concentration of greenhouse gases. These include results of several regional climate studies. In order to objectively study the climate change, precipitation and temperature indices can be used. Climate indices can be calculated either from the local observations of temperature and precipitation or from climate simulations. In this study, we use the results of dynamical downscaling of global simulations obtained by the atmosphere–ocean global circulation model SINTEX-G (AOGCM SX-G/INGV) using a regional climate model, the EBU-POM. The EBU-POM is the combination of the Eta/NCEP as the atmospheric component and Princeton Ocean Model (POM) as the ocean component. Global simulations were done for the very long period 1771–2100, while downscaling was done for the 1961–1990 and 2071–2100 periods according to the SRES-A1B scenario.