Methodology to Model and Understand the Complexities of Social, Economic,and Governance Interactions for Regional Assessment in Kenya

Abstract : This research explores the use of complex systems techniques to understand, model, and quantify how local events in the areas of security, governance, and economic development can have far-reaching regional impacts in developing countries. Several systems diagramming and system dynamics techniques were explored to conduct a thorough system analysis and ultimately determine what inputs cause the largest increase in key state variables representing a country's capacity and status. The resulting model will be used by AFRICOM analysts to determine the effect of local events across a wide range of variables in order to determine where the largest impact can be made to the improvement of a country's economic, social, and security status, and thereby prioritize investment and other activities in the area of interest.