U.S.-Taiwan relations: continuity and change in a triangular dynamic

Tsai Ing-wen’s victory in Taiwan’s 2016 presidential election portended generally good relations between the United States and Taiwan, and the relationship has been strikingly positive into Tsai’s second term. Reasons include the state of the bilateral relationship Tsai inherited, Tsai’s positions and behavior as candidate and president, long-standing features of U.S. policy, a downturn in cross-Strait relations for which Washington blamed Beijing, and sharply worsening U.S.-China relations. In recent years, U.S. policy has evolved to offer increased support for Taiwan. The relationship faces new uncertainty, partly because of possible changes in a two-decade pattern of sequences of possible change in Taiwan and triangular relations: the first mover (Taiwan) initiates a possible challenge to the status quo, the second mover (Beijing) reacts, and the third mover (the United States) seeks to preserve or restore stability or the status quo. Signs are mixed about whether the dynamic continues in the Tsai era.