Natural distribution of yerba mate in Brazil in the current and future climatic scenarios

Ilex paraguariensis St. Hill is a native species from Brazil, northeast of Argentina and Paraguay. It is mainly used in mate tea, a drink prepared by infusion of leaves. Nowadays, the species has sparked interest in its potential nutraceutical capacity and the presence of bioactive compounds for pharmacological and cosmetic use. The natural distribution area of the species is directly related to the climate. Thus, the predictability of occurrence, using appropriate niche models, is an important tool to assist in the adoption of species conservation strategies. Accordingly, aim of this work was to identify the natural distribution of the species, using ecological niche models, and project its distribution in future climatic scenarios, according to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. A tendency toward significant reduction in areas favorable to the distribution of yerba mate has been projected for future climatic scenarios, either “moderately pessimistic” (RCP4.5) or “more pessimistic” (RCP8.5), 71.7 and 78% in 2050 and 87 and 96.4% in 2070, respectively, showing a resultant trend toward concentration in the higher altitudes of the Atlantic Forest Biome. Thus, it is possible to predict the more favorable areas for conservation and breeding programs, ensuring the maintenance of its (da erva-mate) genetic diversity and resilience.