Pacific Islands: Small and dispersed ‘sea-locked’ islands

Abstract This chapter develops a model to simulate international cargo flows highlighting the Pacific region and examines potential impacts of policies and investments with the model. In model formulation, this study assumes the user equilibrium principle in network assignment considering vessel capacity and with shipping demand between ports given. Next, the model is calibrated with existing databases and local data collected through a field survey. The developed model successfully reproduces observed transshipment at ports worldwide, including Pacific ports. Then, the model is applied to four possible scenarios in 2030: the baseline scenario, the port underdevelopment scenario, the Honolulu shipping service scenario, and the vessel enlargement scenario. From the scenario analysis, implications are derived regarding future regional trade patterns, inter-port competition, priority of port development, influence of new shipping services, and impacts of vessel enlargement. The results are expected to contribute to policy development regarding the maritime freight transportation in the Pacific region.