How Will an Emissions Trading System Affect Household Income and Social Equity? A CGE-Based Case Study of China

Abstract Recently, China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced the establishment of a nationwide carbon emissions trading system (ETS), which will be the largest ETS in the world. The national ETS directly encourages enterprises to make a low-carbon transition through market mechanisms. In addition, the ETS is a potential source of significant government revenue through the auction of emissions permits. The allocation of this revenue is an important consideration for the NDRC. Some ETS areas already have experience with revenue recycling. For example, the California government directly returns ETS revenue to residents through electricity bill credits, as well as dedicated some of the revenue to the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund (GGRF). This study uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to explore the economic impact of directly returning the revenue from the ETS to residents in China. At the same time, taking into account the significant differences between different income groups in urban and rural areas in China, the research explores the difference between different distribution policies. The results show that the coal industry will suffer the greatest negative impact from the ETS. By 2050, the number of people employed in the coal industry will fall by 63.8% compared to 2012, and under the ETS scenario, coal employment will decrease by 75.3%. However, these employment effects can be mitigated by targeted transfers to the displaced coal workers using ETS revenue. At the national level, ETS policies have a positive effect on GDP due to the income effect of revenue recycling. From the perspective of household income, the ETS policies will have differing impacts on different income groups. In addition, different income distribution methods will also change the impact on the income of different groups. Among these revenue distribution options, the distribution by population be most conducive to the promotion of social equity.