Prospects of an agricultural drought early warning system in South Africa

Abstract In recent decades, ample scientific and institutional efforts have been devoted to developing agricultural drought early warning systems as part of disaster risk reduction programs. This review considered the status quo in South Africa and addressed various factors on the prospects of applying key lessons for a probable system. Additionally, the review explored external factors, corresponding to opportunities, and threats, by learning from established web-based agricultural drought early warning systems around the world. Various characteristics were found among these systems and the most common include inter alia, the capability to forecast impending drought, comprise a processing functionality and provides the level of drought impact on agriculture. The least common, yet vital included the integration of field observations, an interactive map and contingency plans. Factors such as the possibility of providing false information due to lack of calibration, slow adoption rate and lack of secure human and financial commitment were viewed as potential hurdles, which should be perceived as modes of opportunity. Accordingly, the study recommended the use of innovative technologies to translate hazard into impact, provide value-added contingency plans and improve stakeholder communication for further developments.